An article by Tom Slater for Baillie Gifford: Cancer, heart failure, Alzheimer’s: the last hold-outs against the human race’s efforts to outwit lethal illness are under pressure. Tom Slater, joint manager of Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust, talks about the game-changing tech that could speed up the breakthrough.
In this update from Capital Economics they identify five things that have been learned from reopening so far. Some were anticipated, including the rapid rebound in activity once restrictions were removed and an easing of trade growth as output in advanced economies resumed. But others have been more surprising, particularly the extent of supply shortages in some economies which have led us to temper our optimism about future growth.
Exciting times - In the short term, the technology sector has given back some of its considerable long-term outperformance of the wider market. Ben Rogoff, manager of Polar Capital Technology Trust (PCT), is unfazed by this.
In the latest Global Markets Update from Capital Economics, they analyse the possible impact of inflation in the US on equity markets. While we think that inflation in the US will prove more persistent than both the Fed and investors appear to anticipate, we still expect the S&P 500 to make some further gains over the next couple of years.
In this extract from an article by Capital Economics, they review the change in work habits we have now seen and the potential wider impact. In 1930, John Maynard Keynes famously predicted that his grandchildren would be working 15 hours a week. But we doubt that is the personal experience of many people reading this! This is despite the fact that – as Keynes did correctly predict – people have become many times better off over that period. In fact people in developed economies are working more like 35 to 40 hours a week, a world away from Keynes’ vision of a 15 hour week.
Capital Economics outlook on global inflation. The key factor driving headline inflation rates over the coming months will be a rise in energy inflation. The increase and future increases in Brent Crude may add 1.5% to average headline inflation to Developed Markets in the next quarter. However energy inflation is set to fall back and supply shortages should ease as spending patterns normalise.
This latest update from Neil Shearing at Capital Economics covers two major events that have taken place in the world’s two largest economies over the past week. The first is the passage of President Biden’s $1.9trn stimulus bill in the US. The second is the meeting of the National People’s Congress in Beijing. Taken together, these have the potential to reshape the narrative around the post-pandemic recovery.
While it is still early days, the ingredients for a sustained pick-up in inflation over the next few years seem
to be falling into place in the US. It is a different picture in other developed economies; indeed, we still
think that medium-term inflation risks are much lower in the euro-zone and Japan.
“The Roaring Twenties will not be the result of a post COVID recovery, although that will be part of it, but one derived from the extraordinary creation of wealth and productivity enhancement that the current technological wave is delivering.”
The Sarasin Food and Agriculture Opportunities Fund has seen a steady recovery since the low point last March. This reflects the attraction of many fundamental growth opportunities in the food economy and has been both broad based and not so dependent on the rerating or exuberance seen for example in the US technology sector.
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